Evidence Inputs
News headlines, summaries, context notes, central bank communication, official data releases, market pricing, rate-path evidence, risk sentiment, liquidity, and geopolitical context.
Evidence framework
Methodology
How Macro Terminal organizes market evidence into directional pressure across instruments and trading horizons.
Core Principle
Not every headline deserves the same influence. Macro Terminal tries to weigh macro evidence by relevance, source quality, magnitude, confidence, recency, and whether the item carries clear directional impact.
Directional Bias
The app interprets whether evidence supports bullish, bearish, neutral, or mixed pressure for a pair or instrument.
Confidence
Confidence is not a guarantee. It reflects how clear and usable the evidence appears inside the app's framework.
Trading Horizons
Intraday
The same-day view. It is meant for current-session macro pressure and uses the live CSM weighted evidence gate.
Swing
The few-days-to-two-weeks view. It helps answer whether the macro picture still supports a directional idea beyond today's session.
Position
The one-month-or-more view. It focuses on broader macro regime context, where slower-moving policy, inflation, growth, liquidity, and risk trends matter more than single-session noise.
Choose the horizon first, then read the bias. A bullish Intraday view does not automatically mean the Swing or Position view is bullish. A bearish Position regime does not mean every intraday move should be bearish.
Source Quality
Higher-weight evidence may include central bank communication, official data, major institutional market pricing, and large macro events. Lower-weight evidence may include weak commentary, duplicated headlines, low-detail social posts, or secondary sentiment indicators.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets such as Kalshi or similar venues may be useful as secondary evidence, especially when they agree with deeper market pricing. They should not override Fed funds futures, OIS/SOFR pricing, Treasury yields, CME FedWatch, official data, or direct central bank communication.
Context Notes
Some market stories need a short macro note from Bulgak before they can be read clearly. These notes help focus the story on policy, inflation, growth, liquidity, risk sentiment, or instrument-specific pressure. They improve interpretation, but they do not make a story automatically correct, important, or directional.
Duplicate Control
Related headlines often repeat the same market story. Macro Terminal groups overlapping stories so the same event is not counted again and again. This helps keep the bias reading from being distorted by repeated coverage of one theme.
Macro Terminal does not promise accurate predictions. It does not place trades. It does not know a user's account, risk tolerance, strategy, timeframe, or financial situation. It should be used as research support only.